bijansabet.com - Latest Comments in Free Thoughts

Re: Free Thoughts

fnazeeri — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 17:44:26 -0000

Is "free" really the right descriptor? It seems like "subsidized" is a better description because if something of value is delivered truly free that means it cannot last. For example, the premium accounts at Blinksale are subsidizing the free accounts and the advertisers (plus maybe Google shareholders) are subsidizing Gmail. In order to be long term viable, I think "free" needs to be "subsidized" where the entity paying the subsidy derives business benefit greater than the cost. If that is true, and you compete with this, then you are in big trouble. Otherwise, if your competitor is someone who just does "free" then all you need to do is outlast their funding ;-)

Re: Free Thoughts

howard — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 09:42:40 -0000

I agree 100% on the "color part" and blogged about that earlier today, reminding people that Stuart Brand's famous quote about information wanting to be free was only half of what he said. Information also wants to be expensive. Business models are being worked out in the color part, that is the tension, between those poles.

There are 3 affirmative sentences that I use to explain the concept succinctly. (1) Give away something that used to cost money. (2) Make money in a different way *as a result of the disruption*. (3) Have happier customers and higher profits. [ http://bit.ly/Vo7g6 ]

If you can't figure out (2), don't do (1) or get into another business :-)

Re: Free Thoughts

Larry M — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 09:07:54 -0000

NYTimes eventually can 180 deg and charge more for the digital version and offer a discount on a the print version.
While I get most of my news online, there is nothing like a spreading out the paper on weekends and perusing at leisure.

Re: Free Thoughts

bijan — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 09:01:20 -0000

I heard that too.

I would ditch the paper print business and do a free and pay hyrbid
online model at the nyt.

-bijan

Re: Free Thoughts

Larry M — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 08:55:49 -0000

NYTimes is already considering a subscription model. They did beta test a while ago, but maybe the current industry issues will push them into a revenue generating model.

http://bit.ly/18L6wF

Re: Free Thoughts

Steve Kane — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 08:09:09 -0000

and i'm a patient optimist -- i look forward to someone someday showing successful business models alongside rosy visions of the always-around-the-corner future

Re: Free Thoughts

Steve Kane — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 08:07:41 -0000

as usual rafer is spot on

Re: Free Thoughts

bijan — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 07:35:14 -0000

I'm a stubborn optimist :)

-bijan

Re: Free Thoughts

Steve Kane — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 07:06:35 -0000

Respectfully, I don't think its fair or correct to make this about
"optimism"

I agree the old model is broken.

And I am as optimistic about the future as you, I dare say!

But in an ironic way, I think a lot of folks in the VC industry and a lot of
new media recipients of VC money are suffering from "the innovators dilemma"
- people have been pushing these notions for so long, and are so invested in
certain dogmatic notions, they can't see let alone admit they are mistaken
or need to change.

That's neither optimism nor pessimism, its just... Stubbornness, or "the
innovators dilemma" form of myopia.

New media will inevitably upend or replace or destroy the old business
models. But it doesn't necessarily follow that there will be a profitable
ecosystem to follow, no matter how many investment dollars pour in, and no
matter how popular some services become.

I mean, we may still be in the "first innings of a nine inning game" (gosh,
that cliché has been tossed around for at least 15 years now) but we are
also many years into the post-napster, post-kazaa, broadband blogosphere UGC
world, but where are the successful new business models for music? Or
journalism? Or video?

Again, I don't think being clear-eyed and realistic is either "pessimism" or
"optimism" -- that's just a dismissive way of ending a discussion...

Re: Free Thoughts

bijan — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 22:21:19 -0000

I'm more of an optimist. This will be figured out.

Too much value being created

The previous model feels very fragile to me. Right now tv is a huge
business but people don't watch the ads. They either flip the channels
or dvr and skip them all together.

That model doesn't work over time.

Same with news print business model.

ID rather own huffpo or craigslist over the Boston globe

We are gonna say the same thing with some of these cable networks too.
At least the ones that don't evolve.

-bijan

Re: Free Thoughts

Steve Kane — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:53:20 -0000

Huffpo has traffic for sure

But is it a big business? Or even a profitable one (at any size)? And they
barely pay contributors, if at all. Not clear to me they can survive without
venture funding

Digital dimes.............

Re: Free Thoughts

bijan — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:46:23 -0000

Okay. I will check that out.

-bijan

Re: Free Thoughts

bijan — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:42:23 -0000

I don't know if seeking alpha gets huge

But it could be another one

Like a huffpo for finance

-bijan

Re: Free Thoughts

Tyler Willis — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:40:32 -0000

Bijan, I think you'll like Scott Rafer's recent series of posts related to free: http://hubb.me/Dbb

Re: Free Thoughts

Steve Kane — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:10:56 -0000

Yes, I understood that

But i'm asking for a little more deeper - how does it change the rules?

Does seeking alpha ever get to be a business the size of cnbc? Why/why not?
If so, how?

Btw, I agree that cable sub fees will eventually fade or even in some cases
go away. But I will predict that cnbc will be a survivor and will continue
to be a huge business for many years, both from fees and advertising

Re: Free Thoughts

bijan — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:02:46 -0000

my point is that I think cnbc is big now because they get paid from cable

I dont' think that is sustainable

online distribution combined with free alternatives change the rules.

Re: Free Thoughts

Steve Kane — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 17:58:19 -0000

cnbc is BIG business. their web side is important but, as a business/revenue model piece, tangential. maybe that will fade or die. maybe not (actually I think not.)

but do you believe seeking alpha will be a big business? how big? just off web traffic? etc